Netflix Q1 Preview: Analysts Expect Strong Showing From ‘Undisputed Leader in Streaming TV’
17.04.2024 - 13:13
/ variety.com
Todd Spangler NY Digital Editor Wall Street is betting that Netflix‘s stream machine continued to fire on all cylinders coming into 2024. After netting a whopping 13.1 million new subs in Q4, Netflix is riding a wave of momentum that continues to be buoyed by the paid-sharing strategy, as it converts password borrowers into paying members, according to analysts.
Netflix “remains the undisputed leader in streaming TV,” Macquarie Equity Research’s Tim Nollen said in a research note to clients Monday. Netflix is scheduled to report Q1 2024 earnings after market close Thursday (April 18).
The company previously said it expects Q1 net adds to be higher than the year-earlier period, when it gained 1.75 million subs. And financial analysts anticipate the number to be much, much higher, with several raising their price targets on the stock — which has zoomed 86% in the last 12 months — ahead of the Q1 earnings report based on upward revisions to their financial estimates.
Morgan Stanley’s Ben Swinburne estimates Netflix reeled in 7.5 million new paid customers in the first quarter, with Q1 featuring more “breakout hits” than the year-end 2023 quarter, such as live-action series “Avatar: The Last Airbender,” “Fool Me Once” and “The Gentlemen.” In an April 12 note, the analyst raised his price target on Netflix’s stock from $600 to $700/share, based on better-than-expected subscriber growth driving higher earnings (with Morgan Stanley’s estimated 2026 earnings per share increasing from $27 to $29). According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, licensed series represented less than 10% of aggregate engagement among the top 50 shows from Q3 2021 to Q1 2024.
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