As the Globes and Critics Choice Awards Approach, Will 2023 Have a ‘CODA’-Style Surprise?

07.01.2023 - 01:09 / thewrap.com

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight)“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)These three seem pretty unassailable. “The Fabelmans” has been a presumed frontrunner since it premiered in Toronto in September, though it’s by no means a secure bet to win.

The black humor of “Banshees” turns some people off, but it will easily have enough passionate support to advance. And “Everything Everywhere” can be similarly divisive, but divisiveness doesn’t hurt a film in the nomination round of voting.

 “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century)“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)Big hits aren’t usually Oscar movies, but this year it’s hard to imagine that voters won’t recognize these three. “Top Gun” is probably the one lock in the group, but the others are formidable as well.“Tár” (Focus)“Women Talking” (United Artists Releasing)The Best Picture slate was expanded from five to 10 nominees in 2009 to bring in a larger variety of films and hopefully some commercial movies as well, but it mainly resulted in more indies landing nominations.

Todd Field’s “Tár” is the top film with critics groups this year – and while that doesn’t get you a Best Picture win unless you’re “Parasite,” it usually gets you a nomination. And Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” is a quiet tour de force from a female director, the kind of movie the Academy needs to embrace.“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)“RRR” (Variance)“Babylon” (Paramount)“The Woman King” (Sony)“She Said” (Universal)“The Whale” (A24)There are some intriguing wild cards here.